Coffee Prices, Let’s Talk About It

Coffee prices. Let’s talk about it because I got some things to say…

You probably have already scratched the surface by now on the rising cost of your daily brew. But before you panic and spiral while reimagining your flat white costing $12 and your oat latte becoming akin to that of a luxury bag… chillax.

We’re only talking a couple of dollars here and there, my guys! Your caffeine fix is safe for now, but let’s spill the beans (pun intended) on why those extra coins are showing up on the till.

By now, it’s no secret: coffee industry trends are running havoc lately due to the sharp and growing instability of pricing for coffee. But you know what? It’s not just us, thankfully. So, let’s take a look at the bigger picture here.

The Big Global Coffee Production Picture

Coffee is a global industry that’s been through the absolute wringer since the COVID pandemic. Supply chains, freight costs, farming conditions, and global demand all took a hit, and the café industry in particular copped it hard, to the point where it was either sink or swim for many business owners.

While most of us were figuring out our sourdough starters in lockdown, global coffee production companies were dealing with crop shortages, shipping delays, and the soaring cost of coffee beans. And those challenges didn’t magically disappear when the world reopened.

Coffee doesn’t start in a cup; it starts on a farm in various regions. And right now, those farms, from Colombia to Papua New Guinea to Vietnam, are facing some of the hardest seasons in decades.

Climate change has thrown out predictable harvests, pests and disease are more aggressive, and the cost of fertiliser and farming materials has skyrocketed. Brazil, one of the world’s largest coffee producers (roughly 40% of global production), faced its driest season since 1981.

This caused a range of issues for farmers, including a significant decrease in yield due to poor flowering and an increased presence of a pest known as the Coffee Berry Borer, a tiny beetle as small as a sesame seed and downright destructive in warmer climates. It burrows into coffee cherries, lays eggs inside for which their larvae devour and destroy the bean, resulting in significant loss of crop and rising coffee prices.

What About That Whole “USA Tariffs on Brazil” Situation?

Let’s clear this up because the rumour mill has been steaming. There is currently NO United States tariff on single origin green coffee beans from Brazil. Zero. America hasn’t suddenly whacked a big tax on Brazilian coffee.

But as I explained above, Brazil has had a tough season, and that has greatly reduced supply, and the USA (literally the biggest coffee buyer on Planet Earth) didn’t love that volatility. So, USA coffee roasters started sourcing more from other origins like Central America, Africa, and Asia simply to secure a more stable supply—not because of tariffs.

And what happens when the biggest buyer shifts even slightly? Everyone else feels it. Global supply tightens, prices rise, and importers in markets like Australia get squeezed tight. So yes, USA buying behaviour can squeeze the market, but not necessarily because of a tariff. It’s simply big players moving around the chessboard and everyone else feeling the nudge.

Doing Fair Trade Coffee Right by Supporting People Who Grow It

Here’s the hard truth: good coffee should never come cheap if it’s done right. Ethical coffee sourcing, fair pay, and sustainable coffee farming come at a higher cost, but for all the right reasons. Paying farmers what their work is worth and supporting environmentally responsible growing practices ensures coffee has a future, for them, for us, and for you.

At the Sunshine Coast Coffee Roastery, we stay grounded in that purpose. Exploitation still exists across the coffee industry, and certifications alone don’t always guarantee fairness. That’s why we only work with import partners who share our values, people who stay active at origin, maintain transparent relationships, and provide clarity around prices paid to producers.

We believe and trust farmers should set their price, and we honour it. Paying more strengthens communities, rewards craftsmanship, and ultimately delivers the quality we stand behind in every cup. For us, coffee is about respect for the farmer, their land, and the communities that depend on it—not chasing the dollar. When you buy our coffee, you’re supporting a supply chain built on fairness, transparency, and genuine care.